The Value of Shawn Marion

Dec 16, 2008

Posted by: John Schuhmann Marion's defensive excellence often gets overlooked. Victor Baldizon/NBAE/Getty Images One of the more interesting aspects of the great season that the Cavs are having so far is that they have Wally Szczerbiak's expiring contract that they could possibly use to bring another star to Cleveland. It's fair to say that the Cavs are a half-level below the Celtics right now (even though point-differential analysis gives the edge to Cleveland) and marquee shooting guard or power forward could put them over the top. With that in mind, I read the rumor today that the Cavs could send Wally and Anderson Varejao to Miami for Shawn Marion. Now, what do we make of Marion, who's averaging fewer points and rebounds than he has since his rookie season? Has his value dropped in the last 10 months? Well, I say that points and rebounds don't tell the whole story. Granted, Marion is not as comfortable in Miami's offense as he was running alongside Steve Nash. That's clear. But I maintain that the Suns miss Marion more than he misses the Suns. I'll quote myself now: "Last year, the Suns' defensive rating before the trade was 107.9 (points allowed per 100 possessions), ranking them in the top half of the league. After the trade, it was a Milwaukee-like 113.0." Of course, Marion was reportedly unhappy in Phoenix and not always fun to be around. But even when he's grumpy, Marion is long, athletic and willing to play defense. This year (going into Monday's action), the Suns rank 26th in the league with a defensive rating of 111.8. This is why I don't think the Jason Richardson trade helps them much. Meanwhile, according to 82games.com, the Heat's defensive rating is 105.2 when Marion is on the floor and 113.7 when he's off it. Clearly, he helps their defense. And according to our own +/- stats, Marion is a +.052 per minute, second only to Dwyane Wade on the Heat. Back to the points and rebounds. Let's adjust for pace (because last year's Suns played much faster than this year's Heat). Just doing some quick math here... Marion averaged 21.8 points and 13.6 rebounds per 100 possessions in his 47 games with Phoenix last season. In his 21 games with the Heat this season, he's averaging 17.9 points and 12.9 boards per 100 possessions. So, it's not as big of a dropoff as it may seem if you just look at per-game numbers. If I'm Cleveland, I would do the deal (if of course, the report that it's being discussed is true). Varejao is also a good defender, but the Cavs aren't remarkably better or worse defensively when he's on the floor vs. when he's not.

Dec 16, 2008 5:49 PM EST Report Abuse